Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.071499 0.080162 0.089087 0.098941 0.109489 0.120416 0.132563
2025-02-16 0.054045 0.066491 0.080064 0.095835 0.113530 0.132655 0.154766
2025-02-23 0.046011 0.061337 0.078867 0.100085 0.124764 0.152276 0.184977
2025-03-02 0.039944 0.057285 0.077978 0.103909 0.134974 0.170470 0.213575
2025-03-09 0.032487 0.050390 0.072721 0.101700 0.137425 0.179213 0.230973
2025-03-16 0.026198 0.044061 0.067357 0.098624 0.138220 0.185532 0.245182
2025-03-23 0.023633 0.042334 0.067565 0.102278 0.147089 0.201440 0.270805
2025-03-30 0.021008 0.040151 0.066872 0.104534 0.154052 0.214958 0.293572
2025-04-06 0.019154 0.038840 0.067172 0.107953 0.162419 0.230204 0.318522
2025-04-13 0.016554 0.036038 0.065101 0.107952 0.166193 0.239623 0.336279
2025-04-20 0.016150 0.036691 0.067982 0.114762 0.178974 0.260524 0.368477
2025-04-27 0.013952 0.034071 0.065815 0.114347 0.182029 0.268977 0.385101
2025-05-04 0.012341 0.032376 0.065075 0.116136 0.188392 0.282192 0.408475
2025-05-11 0.010347 0.029702 0.062631 0.115358 0.191253 0.290966 0.426437
2025-05-18 0.009857 0.029840 0.064662 0.121208 0.203370 0.312028 0.460380
2025-05-25 0.009210 0.029564 0.065960 0.125954 0.213987 0.331205 0.492062
2025-06-01 0.007489 0.026725 0.062723 0.123597 0.214414 0.336716 0.505967
2025-06-08 0.005877 0.023748 0.058950 0.120153 0.213087 0.339734 0.516532
2025-06-15 0.005464 0.023528 0.060024 0.124334 0.222803 0.357742 0.546882
2025-06-22 0.004897 0.022807 0.060117 0.126908 0.230175 0.372604 0.573176
2025-06-29 0.004531 0.022544 0.061025 0.130795 0.239510 0.390220 0.603233
2025-07-06 0.003810 0.021122 0.059614 0.130795 0.243035 0.399839 0.622700
2025-07-13 0.003882 0.022052 0.062813 0.138516 0.258191 0.425661 0.663964